By Jeff Powell, CEO
Elevage Partners | February 22, 2026
Friday was a busy day for economic news, and the weekend didn’t slow down. Between a GDP miss, a hotter-than-expected inflation reading, a landmark Supreme Court decision, and a presidential response that unfolded over 24 hours, there was no shortage of headlines. Our job, as always, is to separate signals from noise.
Let’s start with the data
On inflation, the picture is more honest and worth watching closely. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, came in at 3% year-over-year, its highest reading since early last year and above the 2.9% forecast (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). Headline PCE followed at 2.9%, also hotter than expected, with both measures rising 0.4% on the month. Progress on inflation has clearly stalled, and the Fed knows it. They held rates steady at their last meeting, the market is now pricing in little chance of a cut anytime soon, and we think that’s the right call. Inflation at 3% with a resilient labor market doesn’t call for urgency in either direction.
Then came the Supreme Court
In a 6-3 decision Friday morning, the court struck down the sweeping tariffs that President Donald Trump had imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court ruled that IEEPA does not authorize the president to levy tariffs. That power belongs to Congress (Source: SCOTUSblog). Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the opinion, joined by Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett along with the three liberal justices. It was a significant rebuke of executive authority on trade policy. The federal government collected approximately $133 billion under the invalidated tariffs, and refund litigation is already underway, though experts expect that process to take 12 to 18 months at minimum (Source: NPR).
The administration’s response was swift. Friday evening, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a different legal authority the court hadn’t touched (Source: CNBC). By Saturday, he raised it to 15%, effective Feb. 24. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration will also lean on Section 232 and Section 301 authorities to replace the invalidated tariffs, projecting virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026 (Source: CNBC).
So, what actually changed?
Less than the headlines suggest, but more than nothing.
The IEEPA tariffs are gone, but tariffs themselves are not. The new 15% global rate comes with a 150-day time limit under Section 122 unless Congress acts. For investors, the more meaningful takeaway isn’t the tariff rate itself. It’s the potential reduction in open-ended policy uncertainty. Markets can price a 15% tariff. What they struggle to price is an ever-shifting executive regime with no clear legal boundaries. The court’s decision narrows that runway, and clearer constraints are generally better for business planning and capital allocation.
How does this affect our positioning? Elevage Partners’ portfolios were never built around a tariff-free world. The companies we own, across financial services, defense, healthcare and technology infrastructure, should have real pricing power and durable competitive positions. We’re watching the refund dynamics for any impact on import-heavy sectors, and we’ll continue to monitor how the administration proceeds with its alternative tariff authorities.
The bottom line is this:
Friday’s data and the court’s ruling both matter, but neither changes the fundamental case for how we’re invested. Growth is real, inflation is stubborn and trade policy just got a new legal wrapper. That’s a complex environment, and one we continue to navigate thoughtfully on behalf of our clients.