Jeff Powell, Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Elevage Partners | November 10, 2026
By Monday’s close, the S&P 500 was back within half a percent of where it started last week, days after its worst single day since April 2025. Read only the scoreboard and last week came and went.
It didn’t feel that way while it was happening. Tuesday’s midterm election reshaped Congress and several statehouses. On Wednesday, stocks rallied on the results. On Thursday, they fell 4.4%, led by AI and chip stocks, and the selloff was blamed on fears that the new officeholders will slow the building of data centers. Oil fell on hopes of a deal with Iran, and the jobs report came in far stronger than expected. Then on Sunday, one of the best-known companies in technology opened an investigation into its own chief executive.
Each of those is a note, and the same election sounded like good news on Wednesday and bad news on Thursday. As the year winds down, our job is to hear the song.
What We Believed in January
This January, our view was that interest rates would stay higher, for longer, than markets expected. At the time, markets expected the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates in 2026. Instead, the Fed raised rates in September, and markets now expect another increase in December, according to CME Group. The 10-year Treasury yield, which sets the starting point for mortgages and business loans, began the year near 4.2% and ended last week near 4.9%, according to the U.S. Treasury.
A view held for a full year is what lets us sort a loud week, separating the notes that change the song from the ones that are only loud.
Sorting the Week
Run last week through that view and most of it sorts quickly. Lower oil is welcome news at the pump, and it would be natural to expect cheaper oil to pull rates down. In our assessment, it won’t move them much. Energy is one of several pressures keeping rates high, and not the largest. Government borrowing is the bigger and slower one, and nothing in last week’s news made it smaller.
The jobs report points toward higher rates too. The economy added 165,000 jobs in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly three times what economists expected. In our view, hiring that strong gives the Fed more reason to raise rates again.
The investigation at Nvidia is serious for that company and its shareholders, and it has no bearing on whether the world keeps building the computing power that AI runs on.
What We’re Watching Now
Thursday deserves a longer look. Whatever drove the selloff, the election raised a real long-term question. We believe building the world’s computing power, and the electricity to run it, is a multi-year undertaking. The equity portfolios we manage are invested on both sides of it: the companies that build the computing and the companies that power it.
Until now, the open question was money: who pays for all this, and how? Last week added a second question: permission. Data centers need land, water, and enormous amounts of electricity. Voters have watched data centers push up their power bills, and the election results raised the possibility that state and local governments could pause new construction.
We expect the buildout’s questions to be settled over several years: in state permitting rules, in what utility regulators allow onto customers’ bills, and in whether the companies buying computing power keep signing long-term contracts for it. Those signals move slowly, and they are the ones we watch. When we set out our view, we wrote down what would change our minds about this buildout: the demand stops arriving, or regulators won’t let the building go forward. A selloff on the fear of that outcome is a different thing from the outcome itself.
So does anything from last week change our view? Not today. Rates are doing what we expected, and nothing last week touched the government borrowing behind them. Permission is the question we’ll be watching most closely. If states start blocking new data centers, or regulators stop letting utilities recover the cost on customers’ bills, either one would change how we see the buildout, and we would revisit how the portfolios we manage are positioned.
A week like the last one can make it feel as though nothing holds still. The notes will keep coming, and some will be loud. What we listen for holds still, and next month we will test the whole view again before we carry it into 2027.
For the families we work with, we will share what that review finds. And if you would like to talk through how a plan built around your own goals would handle a stretch like this one, we’d welcome a note at info@elevagepartners.com.
Sources
S&P Dow Jones Indices, “S&P 500 daily closes,” October 30 to November 9, 2026. The S&P 500’s level at the start of last week and at Monday’s close.
Associated Press, “A brutal sell-off for AI stocks sends Wall Street reeling; S&P 500 sees worst day since 2025 ’Liberation Day’ tariffs,” November 5, 2026, via WLOX. The worst day since April 2025, Thursday’s decline, and power bills and possible pauses in data center construction.
ABC News, “Dow plunges 1,800 points, wiping out gains from midterm results rally,” November 5, 2026. Wednesday’s rally on the election results.
NPR, “Fears of an AI crackdown after midterms spark $2 trillion rout in tech stocks,” November 5, 2026, via New Hampshire Public Radio. The selloff’s attribution to data center concerns after the midterms.
The New York Times, “Oil Prices Fall on Hopes for Peace Between U.S. and Iran,” November 9, 2026, via GV Wire. Oil lower on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal.
NVIDIA, “Statement From NVIDIA Board of Directors,” November 8, 2026. The company’s investigation of its chief executive.
J.P. Morgan, “Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged to Start 2026: Is a Cut Coming in March?,” January 29, 2026. The market’s expectation of further rate cuts.
Fox Business, “Fed holds interest rates steady, pausing rate cuts amid economic uncertainty,” January 28, 2026. The expectation of cuts later in 2026.
Federal Reserve, “FOMC statement,” September 16, 2026. The September rate increase.
CME Group, “FedWatch Tool,” November 6, 2026, as reported by InvestmentNews. The expected December increase.
U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates,” January 2 and November 6, 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation — October 2026,” November 6, 2026. Jobs added in October.
InvestmentNews, “October jobs report beats forecasts, lifting December Fed hike odds,” November 6, 2026. Economists’ expectation (Dow Jones survey).