Caught between two shores: A lesson in market timing
Last week’s dramatic rebound in the U.S. stock market offered a powerful reminder that, in investing, trying to time the tides can leave you stranded.
At Elevage Partners, we often say it’s not the storm that defines your journey — it’s your ability to stay the course. The market’s behavior over the past month perfectly illustrates why.
Chief Investment Officer Thierry Hasse
A Storm, a Panic and a Swift Return
Imagine a sailor caught between two distant shores. On April 2 — what has now been dubbed “Liberation Day” — the winds shifted sharply. Abrupt tariff announcements stirred fears of an all-out trade war. Equity markets plunged. The S&P 500 fell nearly 10% in just two days (April 3 and 4). Investors who hastily abandoned their ships — selling into the storm — locked in their losses.
Yet, remarkably, the skies cleared almost as quickly. Last week, U.S. stock markets staged an impressive recovery. The S&P 500 rose 4.6%, while the Nasdaq gained 6.7% (Source: CNBC). As of Friday, April 25, the S&P 500 closed at 5,525 — retracing much of the ground lost earlier this month.
The rebound wasn’t random. Cooler rhetoric from the administration, including a step back from threats to remove the Federal Reserve chairman, helped calm the markets. Fixed income investors found renewed confidence, too, as 10-year Treasury yields ended the week at 4.24%, close to pre-Liberation Day levels (Source: Tullet Prebon).
For those who sold during the panic, the story is different. They missed the rebound — and reinforced one of the most dangerous myths in investing: that you can guess the market’s next move.
The Case Against Market Timing: Real Numbers, Real Costs
History consistently shows the dangers of trying to dodge downturns. According to a study by J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
Missing just the 10 best days in the market over the past 20 years would have cut your total return by more than half.
Astonishingly, seven of the 10 best days often occur within two weeks of the 10 worst days.
In other words, the moments when you’re most tempted to abandon ship are often followed closely by the strongest recoveries. Trying to jump overboard at the first sign of rough water almost guarantees you’ll miss the calm that follows.
The past month’s volatility has been a real-world demonstration that panic selling during April’s turbulence would have been costly.
Adjust the Sails, Don’t Abandon Ship
Now that markets have recovered much of their lost ground, it is a prudent time to reassess — not to react.
Today, the S&P 500 sits almost exactly in the middle of its recent range (between the Feb. 19 high of 6,144 and the April 8 low of 4,983). This provides an ideal opportunity to evaluate your portfolio’s risk exposure and make adjustments aligned with your long-term goals, not short-term fear.
Market volatility has also reminded fixed income investors that while rates have settled back, the bond market remains vulnerable to political whims. The daily swings in April serve as a caution: Stability can be fleeting when policy is unpredictable.
Still Murky Waters Ahead
Despite last week’s market rebound, uncertainty remains the dominant theme.
The administration has softened its public stance on tariffs and suggested that new trade talks — with South Korea, Japan, and China — may be possible. However, Chinese officials have publicly stated that no formal negotiations are currently underway, and U.S. leaders have offered little concrete detail to support claims of diplomatic progress.
This widening gap between rhetoric and reality continues to weigh on consumer confidence and business investment. Without substantive action, particularly a meaningful rollback of tariffs, the underlying risks to economic growth are unlikely to dissipate. Each passing day of policy uncertainty increases the odds of a slowdown, as companies hesitate to invest and consumers grow more cautious about future spending.
Against this backdrop of cautious optimism and unresolved uncertainty, investor attention is now shifting to the next major test: corporate earnings season.
What Happens Next: Earnings, Guidance and the Course Forward
Major U.S. technology companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon, will report earnings this week. While first-quarter results will offer some insights, investors are likely to focus more intently on forward guidance — how corporate leaders view consumer spending, business investment and the broader economic environment in light of tariff uncertainty.
Given the limited visibility many companies face, it would not be surprising to see CEOs adopt a conservative tone, emphasizing that it is too early to fully assess the impact of “Liberation Day” on their operations.
Final Thought: Sailing Through Uncertainty
At Elevage Partners, we believe successful investing is less about predicting storms and more about preparing your ship. We continue to monitor developments closely and maintain portfolios designed for resilience, not reaction.
In markets, as in sailing, those who stay steady through the squalls are the ones who reach the far shore.
At Elevage Partners, we anticipate — we prepare.
The information contained herein represents the views of Elevage Partners at a specific point in time and is based on information believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data compiled herein In addition, there can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast, or opinion in these materials will be realized. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinion which is subject to change. These materials are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Any reference to a security listed herein does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The historical returns of any securities and/or sectors mentioned in this commentary are not necessarily indicative of their future performance.