From turbulence to clarity: Three market lessons and a moment of thanks
Home / From turbulence to clarity: Three market lessons and a moment of thanks
By Thierry Hasse, Chief Investment Officer, Elevage Partners
Thanksgiving week offers a brief pause in a busy season, and this chance to reflect highlights principles that we believe remain central to helping investors stay grounded through periods of volatility. The past several days offered a sharp reminder of how quickly headlines can shift sentiment, and how durable long-term discipline can be.
Below, we share three themes that recent market movements have brought into clearer focus.
Chief Investment Officer Thierry Hasse
Lesson 1: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Are Not a “Store of Value”
Since 2009, many advocates of Bitcoin have argued that its decentralized structure, scarcity and global accessibility make it an appealing alternative to traditional stores of value such as gold or the U.S. dollar. But a true store of value preserves purchasing power for future use and creates tangible, sustainable benefit when realized — much like a high-quality dividend-paying stock that can return growing cash flows to shareholders over time.
Bitcoin has not behaved this way. After reaching an all-time high near $125,000 in early October, it has since fallen roughly 34% over four difficult weeks of selling. Liquidity retreated, and investors withdrew billions from the 12 major Bitcoin-linked funds in November (Source: Bloomberg).
This is not the behavior of a stable asset. It reflects a speculative, sentiment-driven environment rather than the characteristics of a reliable store of value. From our standpoint, an asset that can lose a third of its value in one month — without a fundamental catalyst — does not align with the role we believe a strategic, long-term holding should fulfill within a balanced portfolio.
Lesson 2: Market Timing Remains a Costly Trap
All three major U.S. equity averages posted losses for the week: the S&P 500 declined about 2% and the Nasdaq fell 2.7% (Source: CNBC). But Thursday’s sharp intraday reversal offered the clearest illustration of the risks associated with market timing.
The Dow initially surged more than 700 points as investors welcomed a strong third-quarter earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). By the close, the rally had fully reversed. NVDA, up nearly 5% earlier in the day, ended with a more than 3% decline — pulling much of the technology sector down with it.
Responding to a single data point, even one as influential as an NVDA earnings release, left many investors wrong-footed. This type of whiplash is not an anomaly. It is part of market structure.
We view the recent softness in the U.S. technology sector as a normal year-end, post-earnings valuation adjustment. Questions about an “AI bubble” may persist, but highly profitable megacap companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google continue to integrate AI into their core business lines.
Investors with patience, and a long-term lens, are positioned, we believe, to benefit more from discipline than from reacting to daily price swings.
Lesson 3: Don’t Fight the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is known for its methodical, consensus-driven approach. Yet it has found itself in a brighter spotlight as policymakers publicly disagree about the path ahead and as the administration calls for sharper rate cuts.
Some officials believe persistent 3% inflation and steady economic growth justify holding rates steady. Others see policy as modestly restrictive and potentially limiting expansion.
This is why last Friday’s remarks by John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mattered. As a central voice within the institution, his comments signaling support for additional rate cuts at the Dec. 9-10 meeting helped steady equity markets late in the week.
The prospect of lower rates provides ongoing support to fixed income investors and continues to influence how markets evaluate the long-term investment case for AI-driven productivity gains.
Looking Ahead: A Short Week and a Seasonal Pause
Third-quarter earnings season is nearly complete. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with more than 80% surpassing earnings expectations (Source: Barron’s). Historically, Thanksgiving week is marked by lower liquidity and lower volatility — a natural pause before the final month of the year.
Due to the recent government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled this week’s scheduled Consumer Price Index release. The next CPI report (covering November) will now be published on Dec.18. Two months without a CPI update does not imply that inflation has eased for households; it simply reflects a temporary disruption in data collection.
As always, we remain attentive to structural trends rather than short-term interruptions.
A Thanksgiving Note
The privilege of serving our clients and helping families feel more confident, prepared and grounded through every cycle is something we deeply value.
From all of us at Elevage Partners, we wish you and your loved ones a warm and meaningful Thanksgiving.
Please note that our offices will be closed Nov. 26-28 to allow our team extended time with family and friends over the holiday. We will resume normal business hours on Monday, Dec. 1.
Important Disclosure(s)
The information contained herein represents the views of Elevage Partners at a specific point in time and is based on information believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data compiled herein In addition, there can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast, or opinion in these materials will be realized. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinion which is subject to change. These materials are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Any reference to a security listed herein does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The historical returns of any securities and/or sectors mentioned in this commentary are not necessarily indicative of their future performance.
From turbulence to clarity: Three market lessons and a moment of thanks
Home / From turbulence to clarity: Three market lessons and a moment of thanks
By Thierry Hasse, Chief Investment Officer, Elevage Partners
Thanksgiving week offers a brief pause in a busy season, and this chance to reflect highlights principles that we believe remain central to helping investors stay grounded through periods of volatility. The past several days offered a sharp reminder of how quickly headlines can shift sentiment, and how durable long-term discipline can be.
Below, we share three themes that recent market movements have brought into clearer focus.
Lesson 1: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Are Not a “Store of Value”
Since 2009, many advocates of Bitcoin have argued that its decentralized structure, scarcity and global accessibility make it an appealing alternative to traditional stores of value such as gold or the U.S. dollar. But a true store of value preserves purchasing power for future use and creates tangible, sustainable benefit when realized — much like a high-quality dividend-paying stock that can return growing cash flows to shareholders over time.
Bitcoin has not behaved this way. After reaching an all-time high near $125,000 in early October, it has since fallen roughly 34% over four difficult weeks of selling. Liquidity retreated, and investors withdrew billions from the 12 major Bitcoin-linked funds in November (Source: Bloomberg).
This is not the behavior of a stable asset. It reflects a speculative, sentiment-driven environment rather than the characteristics of a reliable store of value. From our standpoint, an asset that can lose a third of its value in one month — without a fundamental catalyst — does not align with the role we believe a strategic, long-term holding should fulfill within a balanced portfolio.
Lesson 2: Market Timing Remains a Costly Trap
All three major U.S. equity averages posted losses for the week: the S&P 500 declined about 2% and the Nasdaq fell 2.7% (Source: CNBC). But Thursday’s sharp intraday reversal offered the clearest illustration of the risks associated with market timing.
The Dow initially surged more than 700 points as investors welcomed a strong third-quarter earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). By the close, the rally had fully reversed. NVDA, up nearly 5% earlier in the day, ended with a more than 3% decline — pulling much of the technology sector down with it.
Responding to a single data point, even one as influential as an NVDA earnings release, left many investors wrong-footed. This type of whiplash is not an anomaly. It is part of market structure.
We view the recent softness in the U.S. technology sector as a normal year-end, post-earnings valuation adjustment. Questions about an “AI bubble” may persist, but highly profitable megacap companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google continue to integrate AI into their core business lines.
Investors with patience, and a long-term lens, are positioned, we believe, to benefit more from discipline than from reacting to daily price swings.
Lesson 3: Don’t Fight the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is known for its methodical, consensus-driven approach. Yet it has found itself in a brighter spotlight as policymakers publicly disagree about the path ahead and as the administration calls for sharper rate cuts.
Some officials believe persistent 3% inflation and steady economic growth justify holding rates steady. Others see policy as modestly restrictive and potentially limiting expansion.
This is why last Friday’s remarks by John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mattered. As a central voice within the institution, his comments signaling support for additional rate cuts at the Dec. 9-10 meeting helped steady equity markets late in the week.
The prospect of lower rates provides ongoing support to fixed income investors and continues to influence how markets evaluate the long-term investment case for AI-driven productivity gains.
Looking Ahead: A Short Week and a Seasonal Pause
Third-quarter earnings season is nearly complete. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with more than 80% surpassing earnings expectations (Source: Barron’s). Historically, Thanksgiving week is marked by lower liquidity and lower volatility — a natural pause before the final month of the year.
Due to the recent government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled this week’s scheduled Consumer Price Index release. The next CPI report (covering November) will now be published on Dec.18. Two months without a CPI update does not imply that inflation has eased for households; it simply reflects a temporary disruption in data collection.
As always, we remain attentive to structural trends rather than short-term interruptions.
A Thanksgiving Note
The privilege of serving our clients and helping families feel more confident, prepared and grounded through every cycle is something we deeply value.
From all of us at Elevage Partners, we wish you and your loved ones a warm and meaningful Thanksgiving.
Please note that our offices will be closed Nov. 26-28 to allow our team extended time with family and friends over the holiday. We will resume normal business hours on Monday, Dec. 1.