Not quite Liberation Day
Last week ended on a high note for U.S. investors — but not for the reasons some may have anticipated. What many hoped would be a liberation day from volatility and trade uncertainty didn’t arrive in a single defining moment. Instead, markets clawed their way back over several days, helped by the administration’s softening stance on removing the Fed chairman, cautious optimism on trade negotiations, strong corporate earnings, and a better-than-expected jobs report.
As of Friday’s close, U.S. stock markets had recovered all the ground lost since April 2. The S&P 500 notched its ninth consecutive daily gain, marking its longest winning streak in more than 20 years (Source: CNBC). This was a powerful reminder that resilience often shows up gradually in markets, and rarely on cue.
Chief Investment Officer Thierry Hasse
Trade Deals, Anyone?
One of the biggest drivers of the rebound appeared to be a shift in tone around trade policy. The market’s ability to recover from the sharp selloff following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs was supported — at least in part — by growing belief that the U.S. may be close to signing new trade agreements with strategic partners such as India, Japan and South Korea.
Such deals would offer more than economic benefits. They could also bring a degree of clarity to financial markets still wrestling with the potential downstream effects of tariffs on American consumers and businesses. Equally important, they may apply indirect pressure on China to re-engage with the U.S. administration in meaningful negotiations.
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing was weighing a diplomatic overture: addressing U.S. concerns around the export of chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl. This move — aimed at easing tensions — was viewed as a potential “icebreaker” to open broader trade talks.
However, China’s openness comes with conditions. Its Commerce Ministry has reiterated that the U.S. must first show “sincerity,” specifically by lifting the retaliatory tariffs imposed earlier this year. That demand reflects what remains the primary sticking point in any potential reset of trade relations: Both countries are entrenched in a tit-for-tat tariff environment, with U.S. levies reaching as high as 145% on some Chinese imports and China responding in kind.
For now, the fentanyl dialogue is promising, but not sufficient. Markets may have moved past “peak tariff panic,” but they have not yet entered a phase of resolution.
U.S. Corporate Earnings Still Strong
Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, U.S. corporations continue to demonstrate remarkable earnings power. Microsoft, in particular, offered a standout performance last week. The company reported net income of $25.8 billion for the quarter ending March 31 — an 18% year-over-year increase. That equates to $287 million in profit per day.
Forward guidance was equally impressive: Microsoft projected $74 billion in revenue for the upcoming quarter, exceeding analysts’ estimates. The company expects ongoing demand for its artificial intelligence services to drive growth in the quarters ahead. Investors responded by sending Microsoft shares more than 10% higher, lifting its market capitalization to $3.24 trillion — making it the most valuable publicly traded company in the U.S. once again. (Sources: company investor relations, Barron’s)
Payroll Report Caps The Week
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a stronger-than-expected April jobs report, further boosting investor sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 — comfortably above the 133,000 Wall Street forecast — and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. While not a breakout number, it was enough to quiet recession fears and support the idea that the U.S. economy remains on stable footing, at least for now.
The End Of An Era
Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett surprised many with the announcement of his pending retirement — well deserved at 94 years old. The Oracle of Omaha’s announcement means that the era of investing for the long term in well-managed companies with strong fundamentals, solid recurring cash flows and business scalability over many economic cycles will arguably lose its all-time best manager.
What will follow the Buffett era? We expect to see markets increasingly shaped by program trading, dark money pools, AI-generated algorithms, hedge fund managers and Robinhood-like day traders. The contrast is striking, and it raises important questions about where discipline, patience and value fit in today’s investing landscape.
In the meantime, at Elevage Partners, we carry forward the values Buffett championed — disciplined investing, economic resilience, and a focus on fundamentals — all in service of something deeply personal: your WHY.
What We’re Watching
All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve this week, with the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting scheduled for May 6-7. A rate hold is widely expected, but markets will be listening closely for language shifts in the official statement — and any post-meeting commentary from the White House will likely add more color, if not confusion.
We’ll be paying close attention to how policy and positioning intersect in the weeks ahead. While last week offered relief, it also reminded us that stability isn’t always signaled in headlines — it’s built over time.
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