By Thierry Hasse, Chief Investment Officer
Elevage Partners | May 5, 2026
The Nasdaq closed above 25,000 for the first time last Friday. On Wednesday, in the most divided Federal Reserve vote since October 1992, the Federal Open Markets Committee produced four dissents on its rate decision.
Records and fractures, in the same calendar week. The market continues higher while the conviction underneath it is fragmenting. That is the through-line, and it shows up in three places: the Fed’s vote, the Magnificent 7 reception, and the calendar ahead.
Powell’s Final Act
The split was revealing: Stephen Miran dissented because he preferred to cut rates by a quarter point, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan objected to the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement language. Translation: a significant portion of the committee does not want markets pricing in future cuts.
The majority didn’t feel it was the right time to signal a pivot toward neutral, as policymakers watch how events in the Middle East evolve. The Fed cited rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty as the principal pressures on the global economy. U.S. growth has remained resilient even as much of the world has a more difficult time absorbing the energy shock.
The rate holds at 3.5–3.75% with no relief in sight. In our assessment, the path to a rate cut in 2026 has narrowed considerably. The next FOMC meeting will feature Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair, assuming Senate confirmation follows the Banking Committee’s 13–11 vote on April 29 (Source: U.S. Senate Banking Committee). There is an old saying that you should never wish for a job others are desperate to leave. Warsh will inherit a divided committee, an inflation problem dressed in geopolitical clothing, and a White House with very public expectations about where rates should go. Good luck.
Magnificent 7 Earnings Season
U.S. equity markets, apparently unconcerned, pushed to new highs on the back of a strong Magnificent 7 earnings parade. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closes. Last week belonged to Apple and Alphabet. Apple’s fiscal second-quarter revenue of $111.2 billion grew 17% year over year, with iPhone revenue up 22% and services (running at roughly 77% gross margins) accelerating to 16% growth (Source: Apple). Alphabet dazzled with Google Cloud revenue soaring 63% year over year, rewarding believers that AI investment is finally converting to revenue (Source: Alphabet).
Amazon delivered as well, with Amazon Web Services growing at its highest rate in 15 quarters (Source: Amazon). Microsoft put up strong numbers, with Azure cloud revenue surging nearly 40% and beating estimates (Source: Microsoft). The stock still fell, as investor skepticism around enterprise software monetization lingered.
And then there is Meta. The company beat estimates handily, with revenue of roughly $56.3 billion and EPS of $7.31 both above consensus (Source: Meta), yet the stock dropped nearly 9%. Investors are pushing back on the relentless capital expenditure cycle and the slow pace of AI monetization. One recalls the metaverse debacle: billions spent, hype without returns, shareholders left holding the bag. In our view, until Meta demonstrates a cleaner path from spending to revenue, sentiment is unlikely to recover on top-line beats alone.
Sell in May?
Which brings us to the old Wall Street adage: sell in May and go away. Will this year be any different? Perhaps. The market has more than held its own in the face of war, energy shocks and monetary uncertainty.
But with May here, the calendar turns demanding. This week, Uber reports Tuesday before the open, Disney reports Wednesday morning, and Airbnb reports after the close on Thursday — together offering one of the cleanest real-world reads on consumer spending, travel demand, and discretionary resilience.
These are not cloud infrastructure companies; they live and die by whether ordinary people are still spending freely. Friday morning brings the April Employment Situation report (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Make no mistake: this is not a strong labor market. The better description is slow fire, no hire — employers reluctant to let people go but equally reluctant to hire, while workers’ anxiety over AI displacement makes the underlying picture harder to read than headlines suggest.
Looming over all of it: the Middle East. A region already at war could escalate sharply with little warning, sending oil higher, risk sentiment lower, and prior assumptions out the window. Sell in May? Maybe. But stay close to the desk.
The Work in Weeks Like This
The three sections above don’t share a topic. What they reveal is a common condition: the index is moving higher while the conviction underneath it is fragmenting. The Fed cannot agree. The market cannot agree. The calendar cannot yet tell us who is right.
Weeks like this are uncomfortable in a particular way. Records made without underlying agreement create the kind of uncertainty that often pulls investors toward action: chase the rally, hedge the move, rotate the exposure — take action simply to resolve the discomfort. The pull gets stronger when the people pricing the market cannot agree on why.
The work an Elevage advisor does in a week like this isn’t reactive trading; it’s disciplined conversation. About what the client is actually feeling. About what the structure is already handling. About what would have to be true for action to be necessary, and how rarely that is the answer, even when the calendar feels like it is asking for one.
A client’s reason for investing doesn’t change with the headlines, and neither does our management discipline. Yes, there is plenty of news to sift through this week, and the calendar will bring more. In the meantime, the discipline supporting each client plan remains the constant.
Questions on this week’s read are welcome at info@elevagepartners.com.
Holdings Disclosure: Elevage Partners and/or its clients may hold positions in one or more of the securities mentioned in this commentary. See disclosures below.