Steady hands in uncertain waters: Investors weigh economic signals and policy risks
March is here, and with it comes another test for investors navigating an increasingly complex market. As February closed out with heightened volatility, key economic reports and shifting political policies are shaping expectations for the weeks ahead. As of this posting (2 hours before the market close on 3/3/25), all major indices are down, showing ongoing concern for economic and tariff uncertainties.

Chief Investment Officer Thierry Hasse
Inflation And The Fed: Stubborn Pressures
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation increasing 2.5% on an annual basis. While still below last year’s peak, this data reinforces the Fed’s cautious stance. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that rate cuts remain unlikely in the near term, emphasizing that the Fed “needs to see sustained evidence” of inflation moving toward its 2% target.
For investors, this means continued vigilance. Higher-for-longer interest rates can create short-term pressure on equities, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like housing and utilities. However, history suggests that markets adapt over time, rewarding those who maintain a diversified and strategic approach.
Political Crosswinds: Trade and Transatlantic Tensions
The administration’s evolving trade policy is once again creating uncertainty. Last week, the White House announced a 15% tariff on select European goods, citing “unfair trade practices.” Meanwhile, negotiations with China remain in flux, with conflicting reports on whether additional tariffs will be imposed on U.S. technology exports. These developments have sent ripple effects through markets, particularly in the industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Adding to trade uncertainty, the administration’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are scheduled to take effect this week. The move is expected to impact various industries, from agriculture to automotive manufacturing, with potential ripple effects on inflation and supply chains. Businesses and investors alike will be watching closely for retaliatory measures and potential policy adjustments in response.
Beyond trade, shifting U.S. foreign policy has led to increased tensions in Transatlantic relationships. Recent statements and diplomatic maneuvers have created uncertainty for multinational corporations and investors with global exposure. While markets have historically absorbed geopolitical shocks, these shifts introduce new layers of complexity for investment strategy.
Consumer Confidence Dips, But Spending Holds
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined by 8% in February, reflecting concerns over inflation and job security. Despite this, consumer spending has remained resilient, particularly in services and travel. Walmart’s earnings call last week confirmed this mixed picture: While lower-income consumers are pulling back, overall spending trends have not collapsed.
Adding to consumer sentiment concerns, February 28 saw an organized Economic Blackout, a consumer-led protest urging shoppers to refrain from making purchases at major retailers. While its immediate economic impact remains unclear, upcoming reports will shed light on whether it influenced broader consumer spending trends.
Looking Ahead: Key Events This Week
Friday, March 8: The February jobs report will provide fresh insights into the labor market’s strength. A strong report could reinforce the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” approach, while a softer reading might revive hopes for late-2025 rate cuts.
Ongoing: Political and trade developments remain wild cards, with potential policy shifts impacting investor sentiment.
Corporate Earnings: AI and tech sector leaders will report, offering a key gauge of investor confidence in high-growth sectors.
As always, our Investment Committee is focused on long-term fundamentals, ensuring portfolios remain well-positioned to weather volatility and capitalize on opportunities. Market turbulence is nothing new—steady hands and a disciplined approach continue to be the best guideposts for investors in 2025.
The information contained herein represents the views of Elevage Partners at a specific point in time and is based on information believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data compiled herein In addition, there can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast, or opinion in these materials will be realized. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes only current opinion which is subject to change. These materials are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Any reference to a security listed herein does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The historical returns of any securities and/or sectors mentioned in this commentary are not necessarily indicative of their future performance.