When calm shatters: A single post, $2 trillion and the illusion of certainty

By Jeff Powell Elevage Partners CEO How much is certainty worth to investors? Last week, we got an answer: about $2 trillion. For months, markets climbed with almost no volatility. The S&P 500 had gone 119 trading days without even a 2% pullback (Source: J.P. Morgan, Oct. 2025). The VIX, the “fear index” that measures…

Read More

The final stretch of 2025: Markets rise, risks linger

Third Quarter Market Commentary Equity markets have defied expectations in 2025 — climbing to record highs despite a volatile start, rising valuations and persistent investor skepticism. As we enter the final quarter, this rally underscores a familiar tension between momentum and valuation. At Elevage Partners, we’re focused on the balance of opportunity and discipline: anticipating…

Read More

Markets pause amid mixed signals from the Fed

After weeks of market momentum, U.S. stocks stepped back last week as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated interest rate cut and a steady stream of new economic data. The result: the first weekly loss for all three major indices in four weeks. While Friday’s rally provided a partial rebound, it wasn’t enough to offset…

Read More

Markets celebrate Fed’s move … but for how long?

Last week, U.S. equity investors cheered as the Federal Reserve resumed its monetary policy easing, propelling stock indices to new all-time highs. The excitement was palpable, with trading volumes on Friday reaching 27.7 billion shares — the third-busiest day since 2008 (Source: Bloomberg News). The S&P 500 closed above the 6,660 level, driven largely by…

Read More

Back to the future? Tech euphoria and Fed policy in focus

As summer winds down, U.S. equity markets remain anything but quiet. After reaching peak pessimism in early April, immediately following the administration’s tariff announcement on “Liberation Day,” investor sentiment has shifted sharply. According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 has been making a new record high roughly every three trading sessions since late June, closing last…

Read More

Labor market weakness highlights Fed’s next challenge

The past week brought significant developments across the economy and financial markets. From a surprisingly weak jobs report to sharp moves in technology stocks and anticipation surrounding next week’s inflation data, investors have much to consider as we head into mid-September. Labor Market Shows Signs of Strain The monthly Employment Situation Report from the Bureau…

Read More

Markets rally on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Last week began quietly in financial markets, with many participants seemingly waiting for one event: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium. By the end of the week, that speech provided the spark that pushed U.S. equity markets to fresh record highs. Powell Signals Possible Rate Cut In…

Read More

Markets climb higher as Powell faces his legacy moment

Despite a late round of profit-taking on Friday, U.S. equity markets delivered another strong week, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,450. That’s up 9.7% year-to-date! Few would have predicted such resilience back in April, when the administration’s tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff. But today the twin drivers of market optimism — anything connected…

Read More

Markets push higher, even as warning signs multiply

A little over a week ago, a disappointing U.S. payroll report sharply altered the picture of the labor market. Revised figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job growth averaging just 35,000 per month over the past three months, well below the 186,000 monthly average for 2024. That’s the kind of data that,…

Read More